A Rundown of Blackjack Odds & Probabilities

Players who start out in Blackjack are immediately told the casino edge here is lower and the game beatable. Unfortunately most players are content just knowing that. To maximize your profits, understanding the odds and probabilities themselves are vital.

In the average casino Blackjack game, the dealer has an 8% advantage, not just from some of the house rules (like winning in the case of a tie), but also because she is in last position, allowing her to see what has happened to the other players. This is in a way akin to the advantage you have when last to act in Texas Holdem. This edge can be negated though, through strategies like card counting and shuffle tracking.

Odds of Getting Busted

The important Blackjack odds and probabilities with regards to getting busted are the 15, 16 and 17 hands. For 15, the odds of going over is 58%, for 16, 62% and 17, 69%. These three hands are the most difficult ones to play in the game, but in general, most would hit with a 15 and stand on a 17. With a 16, it will depend on what the dealer has, although with only a 4% differential from a 15, most would hit again.

Blackjack Odds for a Dealer Bust

An important element in your strategy will be to determine the likelihood of a dealer busting out. The key element here will be the up card.

If she is showing an up card of 2, the chances of going over is 35%, with 3, it is 37.58%; for Blackjack cards 4, 5, and 6 it is 40.28%, 42.89% and 42.08%. For 7, 8 and 9 the percentage would be 25.99%, 23.86% and 23.34%. The ten and face cards are in the 21.4% range and if an Ace is showing, the probability of busting is 11%.

This shows that it is to the advantage of the player when the dealer's up card is between 4 and 7. The Blackjack odds and probabilities also point out that the higher the hand, the more likely the dealer has the edge.

Some online variants remove certain numbers from the deck (such as tens), and you need to consider the Blackjack odds here too so your chances of winning will improve. Also, if you were keeping track of the cards being dealt, you'd know when certain cards have all been used up. By knowing which favor you, you'd be able to increase or lower bets accordingly.

Percentage wise, getting rid of all the 5s gives you the biggest benefit (0.67%), while the exclusion of the Ace results in a -0.59% disadvantage. The removal of the 9 and 10 will also have negative implications for the player. All the other numbers, when taken away, provide an advantage, although not as large as the 5.

Blackjack odds aren't as difficult to learn as the other card games. Once you play the game, you'll see how easy it is to apply and how beneficial they can be.