Blackjack True Count and Basic Strategy Variations

What is the True Count?

True count in card counting refers to the "actual" count of unplayed cards in blackjack. This figure is obtained by dividing the running count by the number of decks that are still in the shoe. For instance, if the running count is +4 and there are two decks left, then the true count is +2. Blackjack players have no trouble judging how many decks remain; they just have to look at the cards in the discard tray and mentally subtract that from the shoe. Further, it does not matter how much of the remaining cards will be played or not; where the cut card falls (the end of deck penetration) makes no difference.

What is the Benefit of Using the True Count?

The true count greatly increases one's card counting accuracy. The end result is that it lets you wager more money when it is really profitable, and wager less when it is not so profitable. You win more hands, and you win more money.

True count, like the rest of card counting, is there to give you the maximum edge over the casino. The edge may seem fractional, but if you play hundreds of hands per hour full-time like any regular job, the benefits will definitely be felt.

What is Basic Strategy Variation?

Basic strategy variation is when you make a decision not in accordance with the normal perfect strategy for the blackjack rules you play in. You can make use of basic strategy variation when the true count declares it to be the best move. Please note, however, that correct basic strategy variation is not guesswork like impatient players do when they get tired of following their strategy cards. In card counting, you vary your hand decisions systematically.

How Does Basic Strategy Variation Work?

It works because sometimes when the true count is extreme (either very high or very low), you can use that to maximize you profits or protect yourself from possible losses. Here are some examples.

Stiff hands (12-16) are difficult to play as they are often in danger of busting. When the true count is high, you will definitely not hit a stiff hand as it is likely you will bust if you do. But when the true count is very low, you can hit it more often as you are more likely to get a low card.

Splitting is also affected. Since you are looking for high cards here, then the lower the true count, the less you will split cards. The higher the count, the more you will split. The same applies to the double down.

For each hand decision in a basic strategy card, there is only one variation. Some variations are more useful than others, simply because they occur more often. One of the most common hand decisions you will need to make involve the stiff hands. The variations on these are very profitable as you will be playing them quite often… about 3.5% of the time.

Another very important variation is the insurance bet. Insurance by itself (no card counting) has bad odds for the player. But when the true count is +3 or higher and you're playing a standard 6-deck game, you should always take insurance. The higher the true count, the more likely the dealer has a blackjack!

True count plus basic strategy variation can increase your winnings by 10%-25% depending on how many decks you play (less is better). It also helps disguise your card counting by making you look like an average gambler who makes inconsistent decisions. Try it - it's worthwhile!